Enrollment growth remains possible—and the stakes are higher than ever.
For community colleges, the past few years have been full of mixed signals at best and dire warnings at worst. The Covid-19 pandemic hit after a decade of slowly declining enrollment, and the subsequent economic turmoil has shifted employment opportunities for prospective students, as well as the financial calculations driving their enrollment decisions. Meanwhile, the release of ChatGPT and other large language model AIs has shaken educators and injected new uncertainty—as well as new opportunity—into the job market.
Many of these challenges are outside the scope of what community college marketers can address, especially those already strapped with small departments and limited budgets. However, even with these constraints, marketers can make key decisions about strategy and messaging to attract new students and fill classrooms.
In this article, we’d like to focus on three of the large, society-wide shifts that have impacted community colleges, and highlight key takeaways that can guide marketing strategy for 2025.
The Post-Covid Rebound: Community College Enrollment Continues to Grow
In the early days of the pandemic, community colleges seemed tentatively positioned to fill a need for students eager to move forward with their education but unwilling to pay the tuition of a four-year college during the chaos of remote classes. Instead, most students simply deferred their education for a year, and community college enrollment plummeted.
The good news is that this appears to be a low point. According to data collected by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, public two-year college enrollment is up for the second year in a row, with fall 2024 enrollment 8.8% higher than the fall of 2022.
The bad news, of course, is that these numbers remain far below pre-pandemic levels, which had already been on a long decline since the enrollment high of 2010. However, digging further into the report offers some intriguing nuance. While enrollment in associate degree programs is up 6.9% from 2022, enrollment in this undergraduate certificates has risen by 19.1%.
The implication is that certificates are popular programs filling a key niche in the education market. Schools that offer stackable credentials or guided pathway programs can reach a broader pool of potential students by showcasing those courses and the opportunities they open.
Credentialing is just one of the shifts community colleges have made to provide greater flexibility to students as a direct consequence of the pandemic. In a 2022 Digital Learning Pulse Survey, 92% of community colleges said they were offering more hybrid courses while 90% said they were offering online courses. By comparison, these numbers for four-year colleges were 74% and 78% respectively. While it’s never easy to trace cause and effect, it seems reasonable to conclude that some of the enrollment rebound is a result of successful measures implemented by community colleges specifically for that purpose.
Key points:
- Enrollment continues to rise, but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
- Since 2022, there has been a surge of enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs.
- More community colleges are offering hybrid and online course options, possibly contributing to enrollment growth.
The Economy: Inflation, Funding, and Financial Aid
Following the Great Recession, it became common wisdom that community college enrollment and economic strength were inversely correlated: when the economy was slow, more people used the lull to enroll in courses and retrain. This trend did not emerge during the pandemic, and the subsequent years have been turbulent enough to muddy the waters.
However, during this time, the federal government threw a lifeline to community colleges in the form of the Higher Education Emergency Relief (HEER) Fund. While the income from tuition fell, the $25 billion dollars of federal funding administered through the grant offset much of these costs. Measured in terms of revenue per student, federal funding pre-pandemic accounted for 16% of income. By 2022, that number had risen to 21%.
HEER funding expired in June 2023, and the future of federal funding is ambiguous. Community colleges can no longer expect to offset low tuition income with increased federal aid. However, state support and student aid are more reliable. Despite changes to federal policy, states remain supportive of community colleges, with thirty-five states offering free community college education to students who meet certain criteria. And on the federal level, while some student aid may face funding cuts, Pell grants are likely to remain stable due to their bipartisan support.
The role of marketing under the circumstances is clear: prospective students need to understand the financial aid pathways available to them, including eligibility for state-sponsored programs and Pell grants. The high school class of 2023 left $4 billion in Pell grants on the table because they did not fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). If marketing could help more students fill out the form, the impact on enrollment would be significant.
Key points:
- HEER funding helped offset tuition losses during the pandemic, but this relief has since expired.
- Federal aid policies are likely to change over the next four years, while state funding and Pell grants are expected to remain more reliable.
- Prospective students will benefit from financial aid awareness campaigns.
AI: Pitfalls, Time Savers, and Pipe Dreams
Since ChatGPT made its headline-breaking debut in late 2022, it has been joined on the market by a plethora of competing Large Language Models (LLMs) all promising to transform how technology and society interact. The impact of these LLMs has been at different times startling and underwhelming. Much like the Internet itself, the ramifications of this technology are still to play out, and while the biggest aspirations are unlikely to be realized, learning to use them as the latest tool in the technological bucket can help marketers get more out of their limited budgets.
Apart from the general proliferation of marketing materials called for by each new social media platform, many marketers are flooded with requests from other departments that are not fully aligned with their larger strategic goals. Outsourcing the tasks most suited for automation to AI can leave marketers with the time and attention to devote toward the higher-value strategic deliverables that require nuance and creativity.
Well-trained chatbots may also be able to help resolve two the biggest barriers to higher education that prospective students face: unfamiliarity with FAFSA forms that prevent them from receiving their full portion of student aid, and lack of career guidance. Many students aren’t aware of the resources their colleges have to help them, but as more and more students become used to turning to chatbots as a first line of support in other areas of life, they’ll begin to expect it of community colleges as well. Chatbots can help resolve the easiest concerns, and then direct students toward the appropriate support staff for more complex questions.
Key points:
- AI’s well-documented shortcomings mean marketers should monitor the work it produces and be cautious in turning over sensitive assignments.
- As a tool for rapidly fulfilling urgent, low-priority requests, it can help keep marketing’s plate clear for higher-value work.
- Chatbots can improve the support experience of students new to higher education.
The Marketing Impact: Making the Most of 2025
The coming academic year is likely to be a significant one for many community colleges. With Covid-era disruption and HEER funding in the past, many colleges are just beginning to see what the “new normal” might look like for their institutions. AI offers promise, but its full potential is still an open question. And throughout this, the key mission remains: to raise enrollment so that community colleges have the financial resources they need to educate students and strengthen their communities.
In the coming months, we’ll be taking a closer look at these topics and many more, including a deeper dive into AI, the latest social media advice, and understanding analytics and calculating marketing ROI. Follow us here, or subscribe to our newsletter, Depth of Field, to have our articles delivered directly to your inbox.
And if you would like to learn more about our multichannel marketing platform, and how we can help deliver targeted, career-oriented marketing content to your community, contact us today. We’ll be happy to give you a demo of our software and walk you through the process of starting your first campaign.